Spring 1901

Well, I'm playing France again.  Initial diplomacy makes it look like
Russia's interested in being an ally; Germany's not returning my
messages, and England only just got back to me, telling me he was moving
into the English Channel.  Not good.  He's welcome to Belgium, but I
don't want his fleet in the Channel---because I want to be able to
safely leave Brest open, so I can build a fleet there.  (That's how I
got burned *last* time I played France; I defended Brest, then couldn't
build a fleet on my north coast to defend against (and attack) England.

England is being belligerent and declaring in advance that he'll put a
fleet in the English Channel.  Definitely time to drop a note to Russia
and start planning the squeeze we'll make on England.  I think that even
if England moves into the Channel, I'll keep my army out of Brest; maybe
I'll attack Belgium, try to bounce him out.  (Perhaps the Kaiser will
support me in.)  If he takes Brest, I'll get it back soon enough, but I
really don't want to block myself from building a fleet there (like I
did last game).

Ok, now England's trying to make me think I was unreasonably irritated
over the English Channel.  "The waters of the Channel are English by
treaty", my ass.

Fall 1901

That went well.  I have easily and safely guaranteed getting both Spain
and Portugal next turn, and despite intending to not be greedy this time
around, there's really no reason not to send my Picardy army at Belgium,
since I'm planning on attacking England RSN anyway.  Why let him get
another SC?  I suppose that if I delayed a turn or so I'd have extra
time to position for attack, but then, he'd get another SC too.  Well,
I'll have to think about it.  Depends on what Germany is planning, I
guess.

Germany is now making overtures toward allying with me against...
well, presumably England.  I think I'll take him up on it.  If I could
have Belgium this year, I would be in outstanding shape.  Germany and I
together could quickly and easily crush England.  Spoils disposition is
even easy: I could take London, and he oculd have Liverpool and
Edinburgh ; that leaves us each at 7, assuming I can finagle the Czar
getting Norway.  Well, that shouldn't be *too* hard.

Here is the whole of a message I'm sending to Germany, detailing my full
plan for the next three years or so.  It's a bit of a gamble telling him
all this, but hey, in for a penny in for a pound, and it's only a game.
I've given him the better end of the deal, and we still end up tied at
7:

  Assuming that England attacks Belgium instead of Holland, then me
  bouncing with him will tip our hand.  My hand, anyway.  As a result,
  his one build is almost certain to be a fleet in London; my builds are
  obvious and with yours the only question is whether Kiel is a fleet or
  an army.  I'm not sure that matters (yet).

  The spring round, then, should be predictable: obviously, my Iberian
  units will move into the MAO and Gascony; his London fleet will move
  into the Channel with support from the North Sea, which will in turn
  be supported by his fleet in Norway; my Brest fleet will attack the
  Channel with no support, but might bounce his fleet if I can convince
  Russia to attack Norway, since your Danish fleet will attack the North
  Sea fleet.  My Picardy army will with your support move into Belgium.
  If your Kieler unit is a fleet, could move into Helgoland, but I'm not
  sure that's necessary.

  So during the summer of next year we can assume the following
  arrangement:  France has a fully-armed front running from the MAO to
  Belgium; Germany continues that front up to Denmark.  England has a
  front from the Channel to Norway.

  At this point it should be moderately easy to mop up England.  While
  he could set up a mutual support operation between his two fleets,
  that's all he could do---as soon as he does anything else, I can
  support myself into the Channel while you support yourself into the
  North Sea; we are then set up for convoying into England---and with
  four coastline districts to defend with three units, one will have to
  get through.  As soon as either of us get a unit onto the British
  mainland, we can sweep through the rest in about a year.

  So, from next spring I estimate three years to the completion of the
  campaign and the final destruction of England.  While one always
  strives for more territory, I admit that it would be fair for the
  Kaiser to get the whole north of Great Britain while the Republic
  merely occupied London; we will have to promise Norway to the Czar if
  he gives us assistance there, and the assistance will be useful enough
  to be worth it.  What are your thoughts on this strategy?

I also sent missives to England implying but not confirming that I'd
support him into Belgium, to Russia reminding him to build an army in
the north, and to Italy reassuring him that I'm not a threat to him.

Winter 1901

I'm pretty surprised that Germany did that to Russia, especially after I
told him we need Russia to tie up the English fleet.  I'm a little
worried about a German backstab (in particular, an Anglo-German alliance
*against me*).  If that happens, not much I can do, since my alternative
alliance (with England) would be just as useless in that case.

I think it's funny that the Swiss commentator (that _has_ to be Mike
Kimmitt) thinks there's no alliances yet; of course, I'm planning on
allying with Germany, but England may or may not think I'm allied with
him, and I'm now suspecting the true alliance is actually
England-Germany.  Heh.  Next year will be interesting to say the least.

Spring 1902

If I get Germany's support into Belgium, I'll be able to hold it no
problem; and then (with *any* luck) I'll be able to support myself into
the English Channel in the fall.  At the moment, England will want the
Channel, and has two basic strategies for getting it: he can use London
to support North Sea or vice versa.  If North Sea supports London, then
the Danish fleet will cut the support and we'll just bounce.  If the
other way around, then the Danish fleet will take the North Sea but the
English will indeed get the Channel.  Next season, though, I can use MAO
to support Brest in; if they have already made it in, they could retreat
to the Irish Sea (bleh) but otherwise they'll be stuck in the North Sea.
All of this assuming Germany helps, of course.  I'll discuss this with
him *after* he tells me what the hell he was doing in Sweden.

Ok, Germany hit Sweden because the bounce in Galicia worried him.  Still
don't fully trust him, but proceeding because what else can I do?  Once
I have London maybe I can get Russia to draw off his attention, and take
the rest of Britain...

Aha, got it.  I'll tell Russia that (knowing Germany's plans) he can
safely move into Sweden, and could he use his StP army to harry Norway.
If he's dumb enough to do it, great.  If he's dumb enough to do it *and*
Germany still hits Sweden, I can rail against Germany privately to
Russia and set up the stab.  If he does it and everything works, well,
I'll work out something else later.

Just noticed a really bad worst case: if England knows exactly what
we're doing, he could use London to support North Sea into the Channel
AND use Nwg to bounce Germany out of the North Sea.  Meanwhile moving
his army into Wales for convoy into France.  I'll be blocking that,
fortunately, but it's still a good setup for him.  In fact, if I in any
way tell Russia that Germany's not attacking Sweden, he's liable to pass
that fact on to England and cause England to do this if he wasn't
already.  le sigh.

Just told a huge whopper to England about that Belgium bounce being an
accident.  He probably won't buy it, but it's worth a shot anyway.

England responds that he believes me.  Hunh.  Keeps going on about our
alliance.  Makes me the player almost feel guilty, but eh, he could just
be playing me---wouldn't be very good to backstab Germany at this point;
my best bet really is to just go with the moves I've already submitted.
Maybe I can make up with England at some later date, but I'd rather wipe
him out....  On the other hand...
It's at least remotely possible that I can get him to tie up his fleets
up north.  If he *is* determined to move into the Channel, I can't stop
him, but if not, there's no real advantage to me moving there this round
(and I can support myself in from the MAO in the fall).

Even better: in the fall, I can move MAO -> Iri and Bre -> MAO if the
Channel is open; and build a fleet in Brest.  Then MAO can support Brest
into the Channel in the spring while Iri snipes at Wales or Lvp.  Well,
we'll see.


Fall 1902

Well, that was dumb.  Oh well, there are worse things.

Ok, so England still claims to want peace, but that's just grasping at
straws, since he's also trying to get Italy to attack me (as if Italy
could afford a two-front war any more than the rest of us).  All the
same, it lets me claim to believe him---I'm feeding him a whopper now
about me not attacking him, and that Germany's attacking from Helgoland
with support from Denmark, itself supported by Kiel *and* the Russian
fleet in Sweden.  This could conceivably scare him into using the
Channel fleet to support the North Sea fleet (and not attacking MAO,
which would foul my attack), which might help, or using Norway to attack
Sweden, which wouldn't help but would be fun to watch. :)


Winter 1902

PLEASING.  England is SO FUCKED.  I'm surprised at Russia's move, a
little bit, but it certainly resolves a few problems I've been thinking
of (i.e. how to prevent Germany from getting more SCs than me...)

Despite recently reassuring Italy otherwise, I find I need to start
thinking about what will come after England.  Options: Russia, Germany,
Italy.  Russia's not very attractive because it's so out of the way,
plus Germany'll have the northern British centres, and would get
understandably nervous if I were futzing around up there.  Germany would
be... messy.  If we were at war, the front line would be *huge*; if we
weren't we could depopulate England entirely and just leave the low
countries hanging out.  Italy, though---the pie/lyo/wmed/naf line is
attractive, because it's a front wide enough to pass units around but
small enough to actually be able to defend.  The trick will be in
populating the front before Italy can strike back.

Depending on how England works out, I might be able to just take London
and let Germany mop up on his own---then I could swoop in by building a
fleet in Marseilles, then immediately moving that to lyo while an army
occupies mar and a fleet grabs the wmed.  Next turn another fleet could
take naf without trouble, and if tunis is unoccupied (should be) then
italy can't prevent that.  Once I have the four-unit front in place, I
can further manoeuvre without (much) difficulty.


Spring 1903

Yup, figured England would retreat to London.  I'll not have much
difficulty landing my army in Wales, *unless* England dislodges me.  Hm,
actually, that seems to be a distinct possibility; if he uses London to
support Nth into the Channel, then Germany can't help me.  Hmmm.   Guess
I'll have to use Brest to support Eng... I'll still move MAO to Iri
though, and I can move Brest out in the Fall.  Germany should take the
North Sea next turn, regardless.

Germany suggests I move to NAO instead of Iri... that makes sense, and
shouldn't affect much for me.  He also wants me to attack London with my
Channel fleet, which I'm more reluctant to do.  Oddly enough, I still
don't quite trust him not to pull something funny with England, and
while attacking London would block support to the North Sea, it also
would make me totally vulnerable to a north sea-supported attack from
London, with no obvious gain.

Eh, maybe I'm a sucker, but Germany's "this is what allies do" speech
got me, and I'm following his suggestion.  It'll delay the Italian
invasion by probably a year, but he looks like he'll be busy with
Austria for a good long while anyway.

Fall 1903

Ok, no big surprises here (except for Italy penetrating through to
Vienna!).  I could have Liverpool uncontested this Fall, but Germany
might not like that.  I think I can sell it, though, because it'll force
England to disband a fleet.  On the east side of the isle, then, we have
a few options.  England has basically two things he can do: he could run
north to Edinburgh (to bounce a German attack) or he could mutually
support his fleets (to defend London).  Meanwhile, the North Sea fleet
should probably attack one of those two.  I think it's impossible to
tell which one... alternatively, I could support the Helgoland fleet
into the North Sea while the North Sea fleet moves north to the
Norwegian Sea.  That would be easier to guarantee, and sets up for a
clean sweep next year.


Spring 1904

This is the time.  I've sent off missives to Russia and Italy to,
hopefully, throw them off the track for one season while I get in
position.  Germany seems to be on board, although of course you never
know.  He actually offered to give me Edinburgh if he gets in position
in Scandinavia, which I can't figure out.  It's certainly nice, though.


Fall 1904

That went pretty well!  Although Italy figured out that I was turning
towards him, and set up a front line, he *didn't* move into WMed, so my
front line got set up too.  It's currently four-to-three, but I'll be
bringing in the reserves RSN.

I had thought that I would convoy an army into NAf to take Tunis, but
now I think that would be a bad idea---better to treat the northern
African regions as water, since the main disadvantage of fleets (they
can't go inland) is irrelevant there.  And, crucially, the main
disadvantage of armies (they can't support fleets in water) makes them
near-useless there.  Duh.

So now I think I'll do the following thing: move my MAO fleet into NAf
with support from WMed.  My Marsellais army will attack the Piedmont,
and undoubtedly bounce, but that's ok because it gives time for the
reinforcements to come down to Burgundy and Gascony.  This will leave my
northern flank *totally* undefended, but hopefully Germany will be busy
with the tasty treats Russia has left for him to the east.  Anyway, the
weakness is that I can't have GoL and WMed support each other, since
WMed is busy; GoL can support it, which is nice, but the Gulf fleet
could get pushed back.  I think I could recover from that, though.

I wonder if I could get Austria's army in Tyrolia to do anything?  Maybe
he would attack Venice.  That would be nice.  More likely he'll just
spend his fury on taking Trieste, which he has no hope of doing.  Oh
well.

The balance of powers after this round will almost certainly be as
follows: France 7, Germany 8, Russia 8, Italy 6, Turkey 5.  I'm right in
there, but it'll be a fight to maintain my power.  Fortunately, I've got
a bit more power than Italy, so hopefully I can bring him down.

Fall 1905

Germany's really well set for a magnificent stab on me this season---if
he attacked Burgundy, Italy could get Marseilles, and he could walk into
Belgium and threaten Liverpool, which I wouldn't be able to defend in
time.  However, I trust he realises that nobody wants a two front war;
even the Swiss Missive has conceded (finally) that the alliance is
better in place than out.

By attacking both Rome and Tunis, I should be able to get at least one,
as long as Turkey doesn't support Tunis.  Italy would be insane to do
anything with the Tyrrhenian fleet other than run home to Rome, but if
he does something else, I'll get Rome; and if not, then I should have no
trouble acquiring Tunis.  The Gulf fleet menaces both Spain and
Marseille, but I have enough defence (1 in Spain, 2 in Marseilles) to
block both.

I should really get talking to Turkey, but I'm not sure how I want to
set that up.  I fully intend to sweep through and hit Turkey once I'm
done with Italy... I guess we'll see.  I can't really offer him anything
other than bits of Italy, which would gall me.  (Gaul me?  Ha.)

Ouch, just noticed: Turkey menaces Naples, and Italy can only defend
one.  Hope he defends Naples rather than Rome, otherwise the Sultan will
be growing way too fast....

Spring 1906

I cannot believe that Italy let me take Rome like that!  Can't keep it
right now, but it'll distract Italy while I get the rest of my front set
up.  Hopefully I'm sowing some confusion over Austria; my alliance with
Germany's great and all, but I don't want him getting *too* big too
fast. :)

My moves should be straightforward: get units down into the
Mediterranean so I can set up a front line there.  Unfortunately, I'm so
saturated that if any of the forward moves fails, it ties up two or
three units in the chain behind it.  Oh well.

I really need to figure out what I want Turkey to do.  Assuming he
doesn't CD again, he's still a going concern, with five centres this
year and likely to take two more next year (he could get Trieste, and he
will certainly take Constantinople).  I'm glad that Russian fleet is
gone, at least.

Well, Turkey wants to help me obliterate Italy.  I guess I can't refuse
his help, at this point.  Bleah.

Fall 1906

Turkey keeps making these overtures, but I'm skeptical.  He really has
nothing to gain by helping me.  And he's growing by two this year, to
seven, while I shrink to 8.  That's a little scary.  I'll be going up
against him with little or no advantage.  Suck.

I should probably decide in advance what I'm going to disband, so I can
submit the order fast and make David happy. :)

Fall 1907

Germany's making awful sure of where I'm going to build and what I'm
going to do...  Don't have the manpower to spend on keeping him away
just yet.  Maybe after the build?

Fall 1908

*sigh*  Much as I'd like to say "I knew it", it was mostly in the guise
of "this *could* happen", but I happily lived in denial.  Just goes to
show, I'm not nearly as good at strategy as I am at tactics (and not
what you'd call a genius there, either).  At least I made sure to
maintain my WMed fleet!  I have access to the Atlantic this way.

Well, I'm going to just write off Liverpool and Belgium, I have no hope
of getting them back.  If I can at least lock him out of my home supply
centres, I might be able to salvage a position.

I'm not going to send him anything.

Spring 1910

I dragged that out as long as possible, I think.  Oh well.