Spring 1901

Turkey this time.  I think I played Turkey in an ftf game in the TV pit
way back in the day.  A little scary being boxed in the corner like
that, but it gives me something to keep my back against.  I think I need
Sevastopol to be really secure (and not let Russia sneak around into
Armenia), so that's the direction I'll try to go first.  Assuming I can
get Austria not to attack me.  On the other hand, once I have Sev,
further expansion into Russia would leave me with an awkward long
overextended front, which is what killed me in the last game.  So I'll
be well-situated for a stab at Austria.  We'll see.

Italy's the first to send out correspondence, at least to me, and he's
certainly right down to business.  I'm pretty sure he's not a rank
newbie, but most of the people I've played against have done the whole
"greetings, king!" style for the first few communications.  Maybe he's
just varying his style.  I gave him some "advice" that might direct his
attention westward; I can only hope.

So here's my plan for the first year: let Austria have Greece, but get
his support into Rumania (against Russia).  Russia can't defend against
that without using his Sevastopol fleet, and if he does *that* I'll have
my fleet in the Black Sea.  A win either way.  Then the next year I can
put an army in Smyrna to come through Armenia and help take Sevastopol.
It might conceivably be _better_ to lose Rumania in the first year if I
took the Black Sea instead, because then when I do take Sevastopol and
Rumania, I can immediately build a fleet in Constantinople for my
westward sweep---Austria will obviously know the gig is up when that
happens.

For reference, the people that posted to alt.jarf between 11:31 (when
Neil posted the announcement of the game) and 1:42 (when I sent the mail
requesting to be in it; I was the seventh), were the following:

  sundiver cove romashko keithw panther maceo kraut mhoram anarchy kimmitt
  estuckey ngroot mstan rdroth data bruce aloysius neilk davids wolfgang
  kubiak

Neil is running it, and Joe said "for the record" that he's out.  Which
might be a lie, but I don't think so: I suspect he'll write the Missive
again.  Of the rest, there are a few (wolfgang and kubiak) who are
confessed newbies, playing in the beginner game, and probably wouldn't
do this.  Kevin specifically said he was jonesing for a dip game
earlier, but it's not clear if the ftf this weekend will sate that.  I'm
100% certain that Dave is playing, and 99% that Mike Kimmitt is.  Bob,
Eva, and Mike McLawhorn all played in the last one, so are definite
possibilities.  Brian seems generally interested in Dip, so he might be
in; I vaguely recall Al playing back when we were at IMSA but I get the
impression he doesn't do that sort of thing much anymore.  In any case,
there's always the possibility that someone saw Neil's earlier "I'm
thinking about" message and jumped in before the official announcement,
or that they read =jarf and joined without posting in that timeframe.
But my current guess as to the players is myself, Dave, Mike K, Bob,
Eva, Mike M, and Brian.  I have no idea how they'll distribute, although
I'd bet that most of them would want a different country than the one
they just played.

The freaking Italian player is just a little too jumpy.  Less than one
hour into the game, he'd sent me *three* messages, the last of which
was that he hadn't heard from me yet and was a little worried.  Sheesh.
He's nosy, too, wants to know exactly the state of my diplomatic
agreements.
*cackles with glee*
I have now sent Italy a message implying that France is likely to attack
him, and France a message saying Italy had insinuated he was going to
attack France.  This could totally backfire, of course, but it was fun
to do. :)

Italy has sent three more emails in the last day, including one with a
webpage on possible openings.  My attempt at engendering discord between
France and Italy seems to have failed, but they're not actively calling
me on it ("oh, you must have misunderstood").  Oh well.  He further
proposed a whole-game alliance, praising me for being "very good at
DIPLOMACY" (all caps like that, too).  I think he's putting me on,
because *nobody* can be that naive.  I'm going to have to keep a very
close eye on this one.

Italy sent two more today.  Will it never end?


Fall 1901

Everything goes pretty standardly, except that Russia has _already_
invaded Germany.  Poor Germany.  Italy, meanwhile, seems to be squaring
off with France, which is good news for me and Austria, of course.
Assuming Austria doesn't renege, I will have either Rumania or the Black
Sea next year.  There are, of course, advantages to both.

It just occurred to me that there's a third possibility: that the fleet
in Sev go to Armenia.  Still, that's not a threat, since I'll get to
build an army in Ankara.

The German claims to have "considerable influence" on Austria.  I don't
know about that, but it's sort of scary if he does, since that would
make it harder for Austria to ally with me (he'd be in the middle of a
sandwich, bleah.  Then again, the German could be just blowing smoke.

The Russian just offered to support me into Rumania.  I'm not quite sure
what to make of that.  If I could somehow get rid of the Sevastopol
fleet, I would be ok with letting Russia keep the center...   Hmm....

A PLAN: Come clean with Russia.  Get Russia to move to Armenia, where I
can attack it and he can then voluntarily disband.  Depending on his
level of trust, he can either leave Sevastopol open or send Ukraine army
up to defend his other front.  With his fleet gone, I can then rotate my
fleet out through Constantinople, and he can just leave one army
defending Sevastopol.

I like it.  I think I'll propose it to him.

*sigh* Russia has rejected my brilliant plan.  Oh well.


Winter 1901

What a totally screwed up Fall.  Russia betrayed me for essentially no
gain in position.  I have Black Sea *AND* Rumania now, and there's no
way he can take the Sea back, now I just have to maneuver the fleet into
a squeeze play.  Mopping-up action, as it were.  I'm baffled as to why
Russia let Germany into Sweden like that.  And left St Petersburg
undefended---England will have it easily and Russia can't defend.
Fortunately, it'll be a north coast fleet, so England can't just swoop
through.

For now, I need to figure out where to build.  I can't even vaguely
threaten Austria right now or he'll attack me, and I'm not ready for
that until I have at _least_ Sev.  So, armies.  If I build Ank/Smy, then
I can force the fleet disband this round and take Sevastopol (by using
the fleet to support in Rumania).  But then, I'd have to bring Bul up to
Rum and I have an undefended front with Austria, who I still don't
trust.  OTOH, if I build Ank/Con, then it'd take two rounds to force
disband the fleet... but then, that's ok, because I'd still have Sev by
the next adjustments.  Ank/Con it is.


Spring 1902

Ok, so taking southern Russia will be very straightforward.  By the time
I accomplish that, I suspect that Germany and Italy will have been
dismantled, or nearly so; I only hope that I can get the jump on Austria
when the time comes.  The alliances will almost certainly be FT/EA,
afaict---it's important that I stay on good terms with France!

You know, it occurs to me that it was in Austria's best interest to
support me over Russia because (he thinks) I'll be easier to squeeze
out, maybe.  Oh well, really nothing to be done for it....


Fall 1902

So odd.  What the _fuck_ is wrong with Italy?  He _still_ hasn't made
any move to take Tunis, and we're now going to go a second year with it
unoccupied.  Bizarre.

England is turning into a slightly scary juggernaut, set to hold seven
centres at year's end.  Meanwhile, Austria fails to avail himself of the
free supply centres in Italy (or Tunis), preferring to move north
towards Germany.  I am now certain that he intends a stab either this
season or next.  Galicia in particular is almost certainly there just to
help him take Rumania.  NOT GOOD.  If that fleet weren't in Sevastopol,
I could maneuver more, but as it is, I just can't leave myself open like
that.  DAMMIT I really wish Russia had agreed to my plan.

Italy and Austria are clearly in alliance.

I'll send Austria a missive to see what he claims he's doing, and then
see if there's any way to convince Russia to help me out.

I'm so torn.  On the one hand, I _know_ that leaving that fleet in
Russia is just an invitation: PLEASE stab me!  But Austria _will_ stab
me this turn.  And I don't think Russia will actually help me much
anyway; England has certainly played Russia well, and I'm beginning to
wonder if he hasn't had a backroom alliance with Austria as well.  It
wouldn't surprise me at all to find that Austria had promised Russia
temporary setbacks wrt me but eventual domination of Asia minor---and if
Russia believed him.

I think I'll pick the brain of England and Germany, see what they
think...

Well, Russia's losing St Petersburg in any case, so he's not likely to
be a very useful ally anyway.  Certainly that fleet in Sevastopol won't
help me in moving west.  I'm going to have to take Sevastopol this turn
and hope that it doesn't screw my westward chances too much.  I hope it
doesn't piss off England, because he's right, I'm going to have to deal
with him before too long. :(

Now just to make Austria think I don't know....


Winter 1902

I called the stab.  I just wish I'd seen how it was going to work in the
Balkans; I could've kept Bulgaria if I hadn't moved the army out of the
way.  And I could've still built a fleet in Smyrna.  Live and learn, I
guess.  At least now I'll be able to build a fleet in Constantinople (by
disbanding the other one).  I'll lose Serbia for sure but maybe I can
eat away at the others.

I should've coordinated better with Germany---if he hand't attacked
Warsaw, the Russian would've taken Galicia.  Wouldn't have mattered for
the play of the thing, but the Russian army would've been elsewhere. :P


Spring 1903

Nothing surprising in the winter builds, really.  What a mess.  Well, if
the army in the Ukraine doesn't support Austria, then I should at
_least_ be able to take one center back this round.  I can't even begin
to imagine how I can guarantee Russia's support.  Maybe get England to
lean on him?

Ok, so Germany's going to beat himself to death on Russia; Russia is
trying to stay alive; Italy's a moron.  *sigh*  At least I'm having fun
by feeding Italy okay-but-not-great advice....


Fall 1903

That went... pretty well, actually.  Now, due to Austria's units in
Trieste and Greece being _fleets_, I can guarantee that I'll keep
Bulgaria, and that if I lose Serbia I'll take Rumania.  If Austria
really missteps (by leaving Greece and not using Galicia to support a
Rumanian hold), then I could actually be up _three_ centres at the end
of the year.  Yay!

France is starting to worry me a little bit.  He seems to have his act
together, and has a lovely eastern front line.  I think I need to try to
get England to attack France---I'd certainly much rather come out the
other side of Austria to find a crazy Italy than to find a powerful
France.  England, for his part, seems to agree, and France has been
annoying him recently....


Winter 1903

Damn!  Austria did exactly the optimal thing, and everything bounced.
Fortunately, I kept Bulgaria, so I have a build---that'll disengage the
deadlock.  Once I take Greece, I can start to work my way northward.

Unfortunately, France will beat me to the Ionian.  In fact, France could
make my life really difficult by allying with Austria.  Damn damn damn.
My diplomacy has to be engineered towards making England threaten
France, to get France to pull back some---looks like the final four will
be me and England against Austria and France.  Yuck.


Spring 1904

Looks like England was already thinking along those lines---a fleet in
Liverpool can mean little else.

Hm, I was going to use the same moves as last time plus a move into the
Aegean, but I just realised that then Austria could bounce me and negate
that whole sequence.  I need Bulgaria to support the move; but then
Rumania can cut that support.  I think it cuts support even if it's
dislodged (which it would be).  On the other hand, then I would have
Rumania, so it's not a total wash.  (Hm, but then Austria would be
poised to support Russia back into Sevastopol... whatta pain.  I think
it's still my best option, though.)

Eenteresting.  France and Austria have now just appealed to me to halt
England's expansion so as not to throw the win to him.  Of course, he
has _nine_ centres right now, so it's not like it's an imminent threat.
Sounds like they really are allied.  Well, maybe I can get something out
of this.


Fall 1904

Nothing terribly unexpected.  Austria traded Serbia for Rumania; now I
have a unified front, although some of it is defensive only because of
the coastal fleets.  I need to take care of that.

I can support myself into Greece next round, the only question is how
(fleet?  army?  which one?)---I have four choices, and all four of my
southern units are involved in each of them.

Then there is the question of Moscow.  If I rely on English support into
Moscow, then that leaves Rumania unsupported, and Austria could take it.
On the other hand, I may have the unique opportunity this round of
getting Germany to hit Warsaw, which would let me take Moscow.  On the
other hand, retaking Rumania *again* will be a royal pain.  Hm, maybe if
I could get Russia to do me a favour and hit Galicia?  That would
certainly be a diplomatic triumph---getting Russia to prevent Austria
from hitting me, even as I hit Russia.  And get Germany to hit him, in
case he reneges.  The funniest of all would be if Austria used Galicia
to take Rumania, making Russia's unit leave Warsaw, allowing Germany's
in---and I'd take Moscow, so Russia would be eliminated like *that*.
Then again, I'd still lose Rumania. :P

Damn the German for moving to Ukraine!  Talk about screwing up my plans.
:(  And now this France is sending exactly the same sort of messages
to me as Turkey that I sent as France to Don Ford's Turkey: stop your
bickering in the Balkans and halt the northern aggressor. :P

Germany now is offering to support me in to Moscow, but I don't want to
let him know I'm doing that this season, because then he could just walk
into Sevastopol.  He and Austria may be in cahoots and counting on that,
in fact.  Hmm.

Ok, I'm now conceding Greece to Austria.  I'll set up a front with my
fleets through the Aegean and EMed, and reclaim the Albanian army by
disbanding and rebuilding it, hopefully.  I have no idea if any of this
will word out.  We'll see, I guess.

Well, assuming nobody's lying, I think I've just masterminded the
elimination of Russia.  Russia, if you read this: nothing personal!
Don't worry, Germany's next. :)  (Then again, now that I've admitted to
Austria that I'm not supporting Rumania, dollars to doughnuts he's going
to attack Rumania.  On the other hand, that would make him lose Serbia,
I think.  Well, we'll see.  I will at least gain position down by the
Aegean.)

After I thanked Germany I just got a response: "The pleasure is mine."
Creepiest damn thing I ever read.


Winter 1904

YESSSSSS!  That is all.


Spring 1905

This will be a year of consolidation, I think; obviously I need to get a
unit up to Sevastopol post haste, and a fleet in the Black Sea will be
useful both to support armies and to convoy built armies up to the front
line.  Unfortunately, if Austria remains hostile, I can't prevent him
from taking Rumania back.  If he attacks in the spring, with Gal and
Ser, then I could hold it by supporting it with Bulgaria.  But then if
he doesn't attack, he would have three units on Rumania (Gal, Bud, Ser)
and I just couldn't defend it.  If I do lose Rumania in the shuffle, I
might not be able to take it back immediately, but I could get it
eventually, hopefully.  And at least it wouldn't form an actual break in
my front line, since the army couldn't go through the Black Sea.

In the south, I could move the EMed to Ion, but that would just
antagonise Austria.  I'll pass on that one....


Fall 1905

All continues according to plan.  Next season I will have a solid front
line.  Austria obviously trusts me---he left Greece open---and may
continue to trust me since I didn't stab him on it.  (Yet.)  My next
major plan is to move to Sev, then move Mos/Sev to Lvn/Mos in an
apparent attack on St Petersburg, but turn it around and take Warsaw.
Ideally, I would then turn on Austria at the same time.  However, that
is already the Fall of next year, three seasons away, by which time
England will have advanced considerably.  I think I need to move west
against Austria/France sooner... but how?  Not least, I want Austria not
to get a build this year, and since he just took Venice that means
reducing him by one, i.e. taking Greece.  I can do that, I think, unless
he moves on Greece with support (but if he were doing that, why would
he have moved into the Ionian at all?).  Moving on Greece probably also
means that I'd leave Bulgaria open, but that's unlikely to matter, since
Austria probably wouldn't think to move on it.  (If he did, then oh
well, we trade centres and I take it back next year.  There are worse
things.)

Maybe I could talk Italy into supporting me into the Ionian....  The
trick is hoping that he won't tell Austria, since not only would that
tip Austria off on the Ionian move, my need for outside support would
also indicate that I'm using my Aegean fleet for something else, i.e.
attacking Greece.  Well, there's nothing for it but to try.

Italy says yes....


Winter 1905

Holy shit, dude!  Austria just got _decimated_!  I certainly wasn't
expecting Italy to get Venice back.  Ok, now I'm officially A Little
Worried about England's expansion---I may take St Petersburg hostage for
a little while to make sure he doesn't overtake me.  He now has 13, and
I just have 8.  I can move fast, but perhaps not as fast as he can....

I think I can take three centres next year: Tunis, Serbia, and either
Warsaw or StP.  He's not positioned to grow quite so fast, especially if
I hold StP for a while.  Fortunately, he's got his armies all bottled up
in Germany and it'll take a bit to get them over to France where they'll
be useful.  We'll see.


Spring 1906

Ok, time to put my plan into action.  Take Tunis and move the
Constantinople army into Bulgaria, positioned to take Serbia; also
position myself to take either StP or War.


Fall 1906

Huh, France is gaining ground back against England.  I think I'll not
attack StP, then; put Germany out of his misery.  Italy is an idiot; he
should've used his idle unit in Venice to support Rome to Tuscany.

Now, what to do in the Balkans?  I _think_ I can count on Italy to try
attacking the Ionian again, so I can stand him off with the Tunisian
fleet and still take Tunis.  That frees up the Aegean fleet to move on
Greece and prevent the Austrian from taking it as the Greek army takes
Serbia.  I'd rather use the Bulgarian army to take Serbia, but then I
can't guarantee support.

On the other hand, if Austria supports Italy into the Ionian, it would
make my life really difficult, as they would then have access to the
Aegean and Eastern Med.  On the third hand, with three brand new supply
centers I could build fresh fleets to populate those water provinces, so
it might not be too bad.

Another scenario is if Austria realises that Galicia can break Rumania's
support with Budapest still supporting Serbia and Albania breaking
Greece's support.  A very defensive manoeuvre, but it would block any
progress in that direction.


Winter 1906

Oops, I meant to fix the Tunis thing based on correspondence with
Italy... oh well, maybe I can play this up with France or something.

Meanwhile, I just traded Serbia for Rumania AGAIN.  At least this time
I'm in a better position to keep Serbia when I retake Rumania.  Let's
see if I can manage to do that while landing an army on Italian
shores....


Spring 1908

I haven't written in a while, as I've been a bit distracted.  But it
looks like England has finally decided to turn on me.  I should have
taken St Petersburg after all; it would have extended me a bit, but it
would have put me in a better position, and Warsaw would be held by
neither England nor Austria right now.

Oh well.

At this point, I'm pretty much viewing the game as tactics practice.
Italy and France aren't really worth talking to, Austria wouldn't
believe me even if I did want to ally with him, and England, well,
England's set to win by the end of next year.  How many centres can I
grab by then?